Daily Killings in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The mean count of per-day murders per month in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent administrative data. However, security analysts have advised that murder numbers may not indicate improved national security.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in the previous September. This information was shared by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded during these months is remarkably significant,” the President said, noting that last month the lowest amount of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an apparently sharper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central components of the President's security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

However, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide data to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily killings was also an issue because it may mask periods when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to show their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to create a story of security. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.