Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.