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Amid the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.